Rheinbote From Germany, joined May 2006, 1227 posts, RR: 21 Posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 8095 times:
"[Howard A. Rubel of Jefferies & Co] said there was a 60 percent chance that the 747-8 may be delayed by six months or more, which would result in an estimated cut to 2009 earnings of 10 cents per share. However, that possibility is within his forecast error, he said." http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080827/boeing_analyst_note.html?.v=1
While probably nobody cares about a 6 month delay anymore, be it true or not, this is a welcome opportunity to ask fellow Anetters for an update on the 747-8. So, what's up in Everett these days?
Not much, just a greedy bunch of IAM members getting ready to strike.
Paid healthcare, a 10% raise over 3 years, and $3,300 was termed as "insulting" by union "leadership."
Such a strike will enable Boeing to declare force majeure and avoid paying millions in penalties to customers for late deliveries.
One last comment. I often drive by the union headquarters outside the PAE factory main gate. The statue out front is a bunch of workers striking, holding picket signs standing by a fire. I guess that is the message. Who cares about building world class products when you can stand out in the rain with a bunch of overweight, angry, lower middle class men.
Someone should do the math and compare what they gain by striking to how much they loose by not working. With so many families on the edge due to the current economic climate it should make for interesting times. I would expect to see a lot of Bayliner boats and Harleys for sale on Craigslist in the upcoming weeks.
I've been dating too. Nice girl, she's an author. She wrote the book on male sexual dysfunction. You've probably read it
Scbriml From Saudi Arabia, joined Jul 2003, 8416 posts, RR: 25 Reply 3, posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 7701 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW FORUM MODERATOR
Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 1): Such a strike will enable Boeing to declare force majeure and avoid paying millions in penalties to customers for late deliveries.
Presumably they would only avoid paying additional delay penalties, since they've already told some customers their 787s will be 20-30 months late before any potential strike.
If Boeing doesn't meet the union's demands at a time when they're raking money in, then I'd expect the union to strike. The union's job is to get the best deal for its members, management's job is to pay the least they can get away with. Nothing unusual there. However, Boeing really doesn't need a strike just now, the impact could be very significant. Personally, I think Boeing has more to lose than the union.
Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 2): They've actually started cutting metal for the first 748F.
Does that mean much? The first 787 components were on time IIRC.
NicoEDDF From Germany, joined Jan 2008, 544 posts, RR: 0 Reply 5, posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 7630 times:
Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 1): Who cares about building world class products when you can stand out in the rain with a bunch of overweight, angry, lower middle class men.
Aren't exactly those people BUILDING those world class products?
Pianos101 From United States, joined Jan 2008, 266 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 7622 times:
Quoting Keesje (Reply 4): Do you feel the demands are realistic / worker familiies are cornered, or there other reasons (e.g outsourcing)
Absolutely not! The 2nd offer (which was rejected today) was very generous in my opinion. The IAM members do not get treated differently from the SPEEA/non union members so I can't understand what they're complaining about. The current average hourly rate is about $27 for an IAM member, and the new proposal had the minimum wage upped by about $2.50, PLUS cost of living adjustments!!! Sounds pretty good to me. Boeing is allowing them to keep the $0 health care plan, pensions for new employees, and said they will not hire many contractors. I really can't understand what IAM's problem is; it's like they WANT to sabotage our company and our earnings. Jeez....
Of course this depends on family/situation, but I'm pretty sure most machinists can support a family there on the very nice wages that they make. And since they're all boeing employees they get all the perks associated with that, such as free/VERY cheap healthcare, very generous profit sharing, generous 401K contributions, very generous education/tuition reimbursement program etc.
Regarding outsourcing, Boeing knows that they screwed up royally with the "partners" on 87 and I for one believe that new programs will not give that much design/manufacturing latitude to partners (which will hopefully return to "suppliers"). The machinists jobs are safe for a long time, with the record backlogs that we have. I just don't understand why they're being so greedy. Where I am is non-union and don't have any problems...
OldAeroGuy From United States, joined Dec 2004, 2536 posts, RR: 50 Reply 7, posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 7608 times:
Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 1): I often drive by the union headquarters outside the PAE factory main gate. The statue out front is a bunch of workers striking, holding picket signs standing by a fire.
Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 1): Who cares about building world class products when you can stand out in the rain with a bunch of overweight, angry, lower middle class men.
Interestingly enough, the statue depicts a family on strike as it's of a man, a woman and two minor children standing near a burn barrel.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
Lightsaber From United States, joined Jan 2005, 3854 posts, RR: 71 Reply 9, posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 7455 times:
I'm sad to see the 747-8 is trending late, strike or no strike. I believe that it is direly needed in today's $100/bbl+ environment to haul the freight. It seems that management is trying to compress schedules more than possible. Oh... I know engineers will never deliver better than on time. If you set a delivery date for six months in the future, that is the best you will achieve. But after meeting schedules for so long... why so many public slips? They're costly for the airframer and even more costly for the customer.
Quoting Pianos101 (Reply 6):
Absolutely not! The 2nd offer (which was rejected today) was very generous in my opinion.
The IAM would have struck no matter what. The union has been stirring bad blood for a while. I like that the hourly workers have a team working for them to get them the best deal. But not when they stir up the workers to expectations that are unachievable. There must be a continuous improvement in processes and efficiency. That is today's economy. My opinion is that the union is stirring trouble to justify dues.
These delays for Boeing (787, 748) are emboldening the competition. I wonder if that's why we're hearing about so many new single isle airframes?
Stitch From United States, joined Jul 2005, 12622 posts, RR: 53 Reply 10, posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 7296 times:
Could the delay be more driven by the need to complete the existing 747-400(ER)F orders and transition the factory to the new 747-8 FAL more then the 747-8 parts themselves being late?
FRNT787 From United States, joined Sep 2007, 300 posts, RR: 0 Reply 11, posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 7239 times:
Quoting Stitch (Reply 10): Could the delay be more driven by the need to complete the existing 747-400(ER)F orders and transition the factory to the new 747-8 FAL more then the 747-8 parts themselves being late?
This is partially the impression I am getting. Boeing seems to be intentionally separating the production of the two models (i.e. -400 and -8) which they didnt seem to plan on originally. My guess would be that they expected to get a few more -400 orders after -8 launch, similar to the 737NGs and Classics during the 1990s.
Ikramerica From United States, joined May 2005, 15618 posts, RR: 49 Reply 13, posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 6959 times:
The title is completely misleading. (what's new for a.net?)
The Analyst did not say the 748 IS delayed by 6 months. This one analysts says it MAY be delayed by 6 months. It may not. 60/40.
The same analysts said that there is unlikely to be a strike. But one has to assume that part of his 60% chance of a delay overlaps with the chance of a strike.
If Boeing avoids a strike, the odds of the 748 being relatively on time (within 2 months) goes way up.
Quoting NicoEDDF (Reply 5): Aren't exactly those people BUILDING those world class products?
I don't know. While the subs on the 787 have now caught up, the IAM in Washington seems to be stumbling at this point, unable to get the traveled work sorted out.
The 787 delays are due to a lot of things, but the IAM workers are not without blame, despite their claims long ago that it would be the non-union workers at the sub plants that would be the problem.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
Kaitak744 From United States, joined Jul 2005, 1913 posts, RR: 2 Reply 14, posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 6884 times:
Besides the strike, is there really any major risk of the 747-8 being delayed? Many of the systems are already existing systems on the 747-400. Manufacturing method is the same (so no 787 style delay). Only delays I see is if 1, the engines are delayed. Or 2, if there is a lack of flight test personnel due to concurrent 787 testing.
Pianos101 From United States, joined Jan 2008, 266 posts, RR: 0 Reply 15, posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 6821 times:
Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 14): Besides the strike, is there really any major risk of the 747-8 being delayed? Many of the systems are already existing systems on the 747-400. Manufacturing method is the same (so no 787 style delay).
First answer: it actually was already delayed. I think L/N 1420 rollout was supposed to be this year and it was pushed back a few months. Relative to where it is now, I think there is still some risk in the program, but it will be very close. I've seen pictures of whole leading edge assemblies being shipped out from KAL last week, so i think much of the aircraft is actually on time.
Regarding the second part, that is completely not true. Many of the systems are different, including much of the structure. For example, the wing used to be all built-up sheet metal and put together in EVT. Now the wing structure is all monolithic machined parts (and composite upper/lower panels. Completely new tooling had to be produced, and the wing parts are being shipped as end-items from the suppliers. The only thing that will be done in EVT is the attachment of assemblies to the aircraft; this is very different from current -400 production.
Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 9): The IAM would have struck no matter what.
Yeah I know. And to be honest it pisses me off. We've had other threads about this topic on here, so let's not get into pro- vs. anti-union here. But to any IAM members on here: Seriously, we're on the same team. Grow up (for lack of a better phrase).
WarRI1 From United States, joined Sep 2007, 1199 posts, RR: 1 Reply 16, posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 6 hours ago) and read 6774 times:
Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 1): Such a strike will enable Boeing to declare force majeure and avoid paying millions in penalties to customers for late deliveries
Always better to be able to blame others for problems and to save millions while doing it, Priceless.
PlanesNTrains From United States, joined Feb 2005, 1753 posts, RR: 16 Reply 17, posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 6669 times:
Quoting WarRI1 (Reply 16): Always better to be able to blame others for problems and to save millions while doing it, Priceless.
If Boeing wasn't offering a decent deal to the IAM, then you might have a point. Obviously, they are not trying to get them to strike, or they would have low-balled it and let the chips fall where they may.
-Dave
"We're a great big rollin' railroad, movin' fast and runnin' strong."
Pnwtraveler From Canada, joined Jun 2007, 821 posts, RR: 0 Reply 19, posted (2 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 6449 times:
The orders continued to pour in for the 744F, even after the 748F was announced. If there are indeed current 744F customers out there who want to top up their fleet without switching to the 748F and adding the expense of running two different aircraft, then it would make very much sense for Boeing to keep the 744F line a bit longer. That should be a shocker to some on this site who view the 777 as a "dated" and "yesterdays" technology - not alone the 744 . Funny how airlines tend to look at things differently - like the bottom line rather than having the newest model like you were buying a new car. :P
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. Funny how airlines tend to look at things differently - like the bottom line rather than having the newest model like you were buying a new car. :P