Sponsor Message:
Military Aviation & Space Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
CroAF May Buy Used MiG-21s  
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 18649 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

As per an article in today's morning papers, the Croatian Defense Council will, over the next two to three months, decide on whether the country should dissolve its fighter wing, or prop-up the existing MiG-21 fleet until the economic situation improves and allows the purchase of new equipment.

In the case of the former, the article states that air policing would then be contracted out to the Italian and Hungarian AF. The cost of this arrangement has only been mentioned as Croatia's participation and financing of one or more NATO projects.

The latter option however - per the article the most likely scenario - offers two further possibilities. The first would involve the complete overhaul of four CroAF MiGs by Aerostar of Romania, as well as the purchase of four Romanian Lancers (there's no info on whether the four overhauled aircraft would be brought up to Lancer standards). The cost of this option is placed at around €20 million.

The second option would involve the purchase and modernization of eight MiGs from the Ukraine. The aircraft in question are Yemeni machines that had been overhauled in the Ukraine in 2008, but never taken up by the YAF, citing shoddy work done. While at €8 million by far the cheapest option, there are some problems with the jets' paperwork, which has been openly cited as "fishy". Apart from their dubious origin, the ownership of the jets is still not settled, with the YAF claiming the aircraft are still theirs, and the Ukrainian side claiming (and supporting with said fishy documents) that the jets had been delivered to the Ukraine back in 2003 by a Swiss company. The state of the aircraft themselves - as described by CroAF techs who'd inspected them - is said to be "satisfactory", though they did not get the chance to take them for a spin (the cause was said to be "bad weather").

The possibility of buying new jets - or at least used aircraft of a newer generation - is said to be next to none. The former option (which includes the F-16 Block 50, Gripen Classic and the Eurofighter) is valued at between €170 million and 1,24 billion, while the latter (which could have included the MiG-29, F-16 Block 15, Kfir and Mirage F1) at €90-270 million... both well outside the country's financial capability at this time.

So, we may still see the -21 plying European skies well into the latter half of the decade...  


No plane, no gain.
77 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineebj1248650 From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 1932 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 18600 times:

Why not F-16As or F/A-18As? Surplus F-16s or Hornets would be a better bet, I'd think, and the tech support would be there too.


Dare to dream; dream big!
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 2, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 18589 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting ebj1248650 (Reply 1):
Why not F-16As or F/A-18As? Surplus F-16s or Hornets would be a better bet, I'd think, and the tech support would be there too.

The problem with both is that they'd cause more (financial) problems than they're worth. Most of the CroAF's fast jet support infrastructure is still based on the old Soviet system, dictated by the old Soviet jets it operates. Switching to these F-16s or 18s would involve costly retraining of air and ground crews, retooling, resupply, development new tactics and operational procedures and so on - all for jets that would serve for only a couple of years as a stop-gap measure (and jets that don't have enough service life left in them to be a permanent measure). Then the same thing would have to be repeated for any potential new type, increasing long-term costs beyond what it would cost to buy new jets outright.

Exactly the same issue had also killed the German Phantom deal - even though the Luftwaffe was willing to pretty much donate the jets, the sheer costs associated with them (costs nearly equivalent to introducing a modern 4th generation aircraft) drove the deal into the ground. In the end, the MoD had calculated that no used type - East or West - matches the cost effectiveness of a few old -21s... (which naturally presumes that the economic situation will improve in coming years and the acquisition of a brand new aircraft will be viable).

EDIT: the predominant feeling here now is that the MoD had pretty much made up its mind that if anything is to be bought soon, it'll be a -21. The point of contention is from whom... India, Russia, Ukraine and Romania have all been suggested so far, but we'll have to wait and see. It's not altogether impossible that the MoD suddenly decides on a completely different option  Smile.

[Edited 2012-03-08 04:21:02]


No plane, no gain.
User currently offlinemercure1 From French Polynesia, joined Jul 2008, 1483 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 18470 times:

Well it seems sooner or later Croatia will have to move away from Soviet system to a Western/NATO one anyhow. They are a full member of NATO after-all so things like interoperability and common system are key.

User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 18456 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting mercure1 (Reply 3):
Well it seems sooner or later Croatia will have to move away from Soviet system to a Western/NATO one anyhow. They are a full member of NATO after-all so things like interoperability and common system are key.

While this is very much true (and has been coming along nicely in other branches of the armed forces), such a move for the AF's fighter fleet is considered to be prohibitively expensive at this time and in this economic climate - especially if rushed as part of a stop-gap measure. Western standards and NATO interoperability will be achieved anyway if/when Croatia buys new hardware in a few years time... and given the limited contribution that the CroAF's single fighter wing can currently provide (or will be able to provide over the next 4-5 years), there's no real need to hurry the switch along if other options exist.

And when you look at it, the only NATO mission that CroAF fighters can perform given current budget and logistics constraints - air policing - can be done equally well with a MiG-21 as with a Typhoon or Gripen or F-16  .



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineplanespotting From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3527 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 18406 times:

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 4):
air policing

What is the int'l/military definition of "air policing?"



Do you like movies about gladiators?
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 6, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 18385 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting planespotting (Reply 5):
What is the int'l/military definition of "air policing?"

The short NATO definition is using military aircraft to protect the integrity of NATO airspace. In peacetime practice this mostly translates into intercepting and identifying unresponsive and/or unknown aircraft (as well as aircraft that have diverted from their planned route without clearance), escorting said aircraft if necessary, identifying and checking diplomatic & state flights and so on - all the way up to armed patrolling of airspace during high-risk events (such as the World Economic Forum and various major sport events).

http://www.aco.nato.int/page142085426.aspx
http://www.aco.nato.int/page136314.aspx



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineprebennorholm From Denmark, joined Mar 2000, 6451 posts, RR: 54
Reply 7, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 18296 times:

Sure Croatia must have a way to fulfil its air policing task. But nowadays, for small countries which are overflown from end to end in minutes, it seems "old-fashioned" that every single country has its own assets. The easy way is to do like Slovenia and Albania - buy the service from friendly neighbors.

Several times the Royal Danish Air Force has done air policing for the three Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. It's done with a couple of F-16 from a base in Lithuania.

But if Croatia wants to do it in-house, then what's the point using combat planes? A feasible radar, the special communication equipment and a camera is easily installed in a biz jet.

A few well used, second hand Learjets can be had for a bargain and can be maintained forever for a small fraction of fifty years old MiG-21s. And they can be used for several other tasks such as ambulance plane, VIP transport and such.

Geography tells us that should something stray into Croatian air space, then it has already been spotted by friendly neighbors. And if it hasn't, then no Mach 2 (or even Mach 3) fighter will catch up before it is out of Croatia anyway. And I am sure I am right when assuming that Croatia has no intention to be part in any air war (for which a handful of MiG-21s would be no use anyway).

So biz jets will do the observation task as well as anything else. And they will do so for decades after the MiGs have fallen apart or are badly needing another expensive overhaul. Maybe a few neighbor countries would buy the service from Croatia instead of where they buy it today?



Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs, Preben Norholm
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 8, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 18237 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 7):
Sure Croatia must have a way to fulfil its air policing task. But nowadays, for small countries which are overflown from end to end in minutes, it seems "old-fashioned" that every single country has its own assets. The easy way is to do like Slovenia and Albania - buy the service from friendly neighbors.

Several times the Royal Danish Air Force has done air policing for the three Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. It's done with a couple of F-16 from a base in Lithuania.

As far as I understand it, the MoD is trying to avoid this option specifically because of Slovenian experiences (though it is still on the table as a realistic option). In their case - with air policing provided by Italy and Hungary - the deal is said to be enormously expensive with very little to be gained, maybe several flights a year. Some informal estimates heard over the years even suggest that for Slovenia external air policing has come out nearly as expensive as operating a couple of jets itself... though the validity of this claim is hard to confirm.

Another point that the MoD is keen to stress is that, unlike Slovenia, Croatia already has an existing and operational (sic) fighter wing - and critically the crews and experience to go with it. While few remain actively flying, there are still significant cores of pilots within the AF with combat experience from the 90s civil war, and the MoD argues that it would be a great loss to let that experience (and the lessons learned) fade away... and even though this argument is used to fight the AF's corner, they do have a valid point.

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 7):
But if Croatia wants to do it in-house, then what's the point using combat planes? A feasible radar, the special communication equipment and a camera is easily installed in a biz jet.

A few well used, second hand Learjets can be had for a bargain and can be maintained forever for a small fraction of fifty years old MiG-21s. And they can be used for several other tasks such as ambulance plane, VIP transport and such.

Geography tells us that should something stray into Croatian air space, then it has already been spotted by friendly neighbors. And if it hasn't, then no Mach 2 (or even Mach 3) fighter will catch up before it is out of Croatia anyway. And I am sure I am right when assuming that Croatia has no intention to be part in any air war (for which a handful of MiG-21s would be no use anyway).

The key problem here is that while this could work in practice, on paper it is no good at all (ironically). Had the issue been preserving the integrity of Croatian civil airspace alone, a high-performance unarmed aircraft could very well do the trick; however, the issue here is protecting and preserving the integrity of NATO airspace as well, which - as far as I understand - requires armed military aircraft able to engage intruders during wartime.

Another problem is that while the Learjet (for example) has stellar climb performance for a civil jet, it's not near enough that of a military type specifically designed for the job. It is true that in many situations this doesn't matter all that much - as you have mentioned, an unidentified aircraft would surely be spotted by some of the country's neighbors, giving ample warning and enough time to scramble a LJ that could meet the aircraft at the border and escort it through the country.

However, problems start if an airliner looses comms, deviates from its route or suffers an emergency within Croatia. The most frequented airways run the length of the country, giving stretches from 300 km (Northern Croatia to the border with Serbia) to nearly 500 km (Istria to the Montenegrin border) with typical flight times of between 20 and 40 minutes - long enough for a supersonic QRA fighter to scramble and intercept, but of questionable length for an LJ to climb 30-35,000 ft all while trying to catch up with a target that's moving at or above its own maximum speed.

Granted, this doesn't happen all that often and on its own doesn't warrant a full-blown fighter. A better solution I think could be the KAI F/A-50 - it's cheaper to buy and operate than a "classic" fighter, it has just enough performance while still being supersonic, it can serve on paper as a combat aircraft and still be used for day-to-day training. If anything - given that it's one of only two modern supersonic trainers - it can also be used for joint training with other NATO countries  .



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlinespudh From Ireland, joined Jul 2009, 301 posts, RR: 1
Reply 9, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 18203 times:

Here's a curveball,

Get someone like the Thunderjet guys to base themselves in Croatia flying Lightenings, Hunters or Canberra's. They might even incorporate the Mig 21's into their squadron. Between Croatia and Slovenia they could easily afford to sponsor a private commercial firm already in existence flying legacy fighters for fun to move and fulfill the policing requirement as part of their ongoing operations. Turn a military funding pit it into a tourist attraction.

Madcap, I know but the more you think about it, the more its got going for it.


User currently offlineDevilfish From Philippines, joined Jan 2006, 4839 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 18029 times:

Subsonic yes, but since trainers and bizjets are already mentioned, any other misgivings about Aero Vodochody's L-159 ALCA filling the role?

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Csaba Király
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Christian Bremer


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Jiri Zedka
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Daniel Rybka


Acquisition and operation costs will likely be low, not too sure about upkeep. Performance may not be up there...one gets what one pays for. Besides, the manufacturer is just next door in case there is a problem.  

However, I agree that KAI's TA-50 would be a good, albeit costlier choice. Don't know how YAK-130 could fit in the political scheme of things.



"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 11, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 18001 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting spudh (Reply 9):
Get someone like the Thunderjet guys to base themselves in Croatia flying Lightenings, Hunters or Canberra's. They might even incorporate the Mig 21's into their squadron.

One could only hope... I bet this would be a bigger tourist attraction than the Adriatic coast .

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 10):
Subsonic yes, but since trainers and bizjets are already mentioned, any other misgivings about Aero Vodochody's L-159 ALCA filling the role?

As an "interceptor", it's problem is still speed. Even though it is faster than most smaller bizjets, it would still have a hard time climbing and catching up with a stray airliner within the confines of Croatia.

Assuming that a supersonic trainer would also replace the CroAF's PC-9s in addition to providing air policing, another potential disadvantage of the L-159 is that it cannot be used as a trainer (unless the B model goes into production), necessitating that the AF keep its PC-9 fleet active. Then you again end up with two separate types that basically each have only one purpose, which drives costs up. Admittedly not near the levels of operating a full-blown fighter, but still above those of operating a single type suitable for both duties (in the scope needed by the Croatian AF).

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 10):
However, I agree that KAI's TA-50 would be a good, albeit costlier choice. Don't know how YAK-130 could fit in the political scheme of things.

Hm, forgot about the Yak  . However, if the cancelled fighter tender is anything to go by, the 130 would have quite a mountain to climb. The MiG-35, despite its very enticing offset package and being preferred by CroAF crews, had lost out pretty early in the competition because of various political and operational issues. Key points that were brought up had included the political ramifications of a NATO member state buying Russian hardware (especially when there are Western alternatives available), the lack of interoperability with other NATO types and the limited choice of armament, which was exclusively of Russian origin.

A more suitable - but again more expensive - alternative is the M-346. Almost the same aircraft, but developed and equipped to NATO standards... and given the industrial and economic ties between Italy and Croatia, Aermacchi would probably be content to shift a few examples this way  .

What is the price difference between the Yak-130 and the M-346?



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlinecolumba From Germany, joined Dec 2004, 7063 posts, RR: 4
Reply 12, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 17966 times:

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 2):
Exactly the same issue had also killed the German Phantom deal - even though the Luftwaffe was willing to pretty much donate the jets, the sheer costs associated with them (costs nearly equivalent to introducing a modern 4th generation aircraft)

Wow did not know that Germany has offered Phantoms, would have been nice to see them fly for another few years instead of scrapping them now.....



It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 13, posted (2 years 6 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 17953 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting columba (Reply 12):
Wow did not know that Germany has offered Phantoms, would have been nice to see them fly for another few years instead of scrapping them now.....

The idea was first mentioned publicly about a year ago  . The topic was known to resurface briefly since then, but nothing had been heard of it for last couple of months...

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...hantoms-to-replace-mig-21s-354585/



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineprebennorholm From Denmark, joined Mar 2000, 6451 posts, RR: 54
Reply 14, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 17807 times:

Quoting TripleDelta (Thread starter):
The possibility of buying new jets - or at least used aircraft of a newer generation - is said to be next to none.

That rules out the TA-50, and also German Phantoms even if they come for free - it's just too much machine to maintain. (And in a couple of years time you will have to buy spares in Iran).

On such a strapped budget the market is very slim, beyond keep "painting" the old MiGs.

One possibility might be the old Swiss F-5s? The Austrians rented some while awaiting their Gripens. Where are those F-5s today? I have heard that they were as good as new - very well kept by the Swiss Air Force (but then I think that I heard that from a Swiss source).

Otherwise, you mentioned yourself old F-16 Block 15. The Americans may still have such old birds in storage in good condition, and they might offer them on a tight budget. Just don't think that those planes are comparable to new - or old and updated F-16s when talking combat. They can't carry the modern weapons. And maintenance will be very expensive for a small fleet when done in-house. But maybe Greece will be happy to help with that.

Pilot training is a very important issue when choosing. Again, in-house isn't realistic on this small scale. With F-5 or F-16, leave a plane or two behind on a US training base, and tell the USAF to train your pilots all way when they know what is up and down in a C152.



Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs, Preben Norholm
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 15, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 17771 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 14):
That rules out the TA-50, and also German Phantoms even if they come for free - it's just too much machine to maintain. (And in a couple of years time you will have to buy spares in Iran).

Indeed, I'd suggested the FA-50 as a mid-to-long term solution - but not an immediate one. Cheaper than a conventional fighter (with the added bonus of replacing the PC-9 fleet), the funds for it could be made available much sooner, so it could enter service earlier and reduce the time that the old (and future) MiGs would need to be patched up.

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 14):

One possibility might be the old Swiss F-5s? The Austrians rented some while awaiting their Gripens. Where are those F-5s today? I have heard that they were as good as new - very well kept by the Swiss Air Force (but then I think that I heard that from a Swiss source).

Otherwise, you mentioned yourself old F-16 Block 15. The Americans may still have such old birds in storage in good condition, and they might offer them on a tight budget. Just don't think that those planes are comparable to new - or old and updated F-16s when talking combat. They can't carry the modern weapons. And maintenance will be very expensive for a small fleet when done in-house. But maybe Greece will be happy to help with that.

The problem with both solutions is that the costs of retraining the crews and retooling the support system are considered too high for a simple interim solution - before we even get to maintenance. As I'd mentioned before, the AF would have to switch hurriedly from the old Soviet to the Western system, retool and restock on spares, retrain and reorganize - and then do the same thing all over again in a few years time if/when new jets arrive.

While this is all perfectly possible - as Italian F-16s have shown - a solution like this requires funds which the CroAF is believed to be unwilling to spend... or even have (especially when they're haggling over 30 year old jets that cost the same as a well-equipped bizprop   ). Another problem is that if such a deal were negotiated, it would set the CroAF pretty far back financially, delaying the purchase of new jets and leaving the short-term interim solution to become a medium-term measure. If the interim jets were of a generation and capability higher than the MiG-21, that would be okay, since they could then be expected to last longer in service... but for period jets, the economics are questionable...

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 14):
Pilot training is a very important issue when choosing. Again, in-house isn't realistic on this small scale. With F-5 or F-16, leave a plane or two behind on a US training base, and tell the USAF to train your pilots all way when they know what is up and down in a C152.

Training shouldn't be a problem. The CroAF already has a core of both experienced and younger MiG-21 pilots, so training for any short-to-medium term aircraft would likely boil down to just a type conversion and tactics rethink.



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineDevilfish From Philippines, joined Jan 2006, 4839 posts, RR: 1
Reply 16, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 17721 times:

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 11):
A more suitable - but again more expensive - alternative is the M-346. Almost the same aircraft, but developed and equipped to NATO standards... and given the industrial and economic ties between Italy and Croatia, Aermacchi would probably be content to shift a few examples this way

I intentionally left out the Master which, with wins in Israel and Singapore, will have its advocates. And yes, Italy is next door, the Czechs are two doors up...my bad.  .

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 11):
What is the price difference between the Yak-130 and the M-346?

Unconfirmed figures put it at $15M for the Yak-130 and about $20M for the M-346.

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 14):
One possibility might be the old Swiss F-5s? The Austrians rented some while awaiting their Gripens. Where are those F-5s today?

Reports say the US is buying back most of those.



"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 17, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 17588 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 16):
Unconfirmed figures put it at $15M for the Yak-130 and about $20M for the M-346.

Hm, you're going to feel the difference between them with a dozen airframes...



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlinemig21umd From Australia, joined Feb 2005, 269 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 17484 times:

Mig 21 replacement and the construction of a new terminal at Zagreb Pleso seem to be a never ending Croatian story.

For me, second hand Mig 21s seems to be the only option for Croatia at this time and also a reasonable one. I think it would be a total shame to either spend 1 billion (ish) on a new fighter type in this current climate or totally scrap the fighter component of the CroAF.

But I believe it is important for Croatia to maintain a capability to move one day towards a modern air force and eventually to one which can field 2 to 3 squadrons of multi roll fighters. Despite being a member of Nato Croatia has to ask herself, if the shit really hits the fan again, will a third nation truly come to the aid of Croatia and put their own personnel at risk. History shows us that the answer is not likely unless the third country has their interest (financially or in terms of security) at risk. And, with nations all over the world limiting and reducing their military capabilities, especially the ones in Europe, will a third country have the available capability to defend Croatia in the time of a wider war or if there capability is already stretched due to other employments? In this scenario I do not think Croatia would be a priority to Nato and the wider western world so the requirement for a capable fighter force for Croatia should not be underestimated.

One thing I would like to see if Croatia does purchase more Mig 21s is an improvement on the offensive capability of the type. How effective can the R-60 still be in today’s counter measure environment?



Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you long to return
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 17446 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 18):
Mig 21 replacement and the construction of a new terminal at Zagreb Pleso seem to be a never ending Croatian story.

Politics and money - always an unhealthy mix. However, the ZAG terminal issue seems to be dominated more by behind-the-scenes maneuvering, while the -21 replacement by a genuine lack of funds.

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 18):
Despite being a member of Nato Croatia has to ask herself, if the shit really hits the fan again, will a third nation truly come to the aid of Croatia and put their own personnel at risk.

We're quite a long way from shooting at each other again down here.

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 18):
One thing I would like to see if Croatia does purchase more Mig 21s is an improvement on the offensive capability of the type. How effective can the R-60 still be in today’s counter measure environment?

Why would the MiGs need improved offensive firepower - and conceivably who would they use it against?



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlinemig21umd From Australia, joined Feb 2005, 269 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 17339 times:

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 19):
We're quite a long way from shooting at each other again down here.

Of course peace and stability will be enhanced with countries in the region joining major European trade orgainsations and military alliances which Croatia has or is about to complete and Serbia (Croatian most obvious possible 'shooting' opponent) to do so in the next decade but there is a cinder box in the region called Bosnia and Herzegovina. I am all for a unified BiH but Republica Srbska obviously has an ambition to break away and join main land Serbia and with the nationalist party still the most popular one in Serbia they have political and popular support for this. Former Croatian President Stipe Mesic said before he left office that an attempt like this would lead to Croatian military intervention.

The issue with Kosovo still has the potential to lead to conflict. Again a change of government in Serbia to a more nationalistic one could force a set a circumstances which lead to open conflict in that region. We have already seen a number of people killed in the past few months in clashes between opposing groups in Kosovo.

Events such as this usually set off a type of domino effect which with instability in the region could directly or indirectly affect Croatia and her economy. This is why in my opinion a moderate but well equipped military, including a modern fighter force is actually a good investment for Croatia.

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 19):
Why would the MiGs need improved offensive firepower - and conceivably who would they use it against?

I understand that the region is nowhere near conflict and the above paragraphs I wrote are an extreme scenario but Croatia cannot be naive and ignore that Serbia has R-73 equipped Mig-29s. Even if just 2 are airworthy, Croatian R-60 equipped Mig-21s will have absolutely no chance and would surrender control of the skies quite easily. The scenario which worries me the most is the one which involves BiH.



Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you long to return
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 21, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 17311 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 20):
Of course peace and stability will be enhanced with countries in the region joining major European trade orgainsations and military alliances which Croatia has or is about to complete and Serbia (Croatian most obvious possible 'shooting' opponent) to do so in the next decade but there is a cinder box in the region called Bosnia and Herzegovina. I am all for a unified BiH but Republica Srbska obviously has an ambition to break away and join main land Serbia and with the nationalist party still the most popular one in Serbia they have political and popular support for this. Former Croatian President Stipe Mesic said before he left office that an attempt like this would lead to Croatian military intervention.

The issue with Kosovo still has the potential to lead to conflict. Again a change of government in Serbia to a more nationalistic one could force a set a circumstances which lead to open conflict in that region. We have already seen a number of people killed in the past few months in clashes between opposing groups in Kosovo.

Please take no offense, but your views of Serbia - apparently formed under the influence of nationalist Croatian media that regularly spews out nonsense like this - bear very little resemblance to the Serbia that actually is. While it is undeniable that Kosovo and Republika Srpska are hotspots for political problems in the Balkans - and that nationalism is on the rise across the peninsula - they are nowhere near serious enough to cause any sort of military action that would spill outside their borders... the days of Milošević, Izetbegović and Tuđman are long gone.

And do you honestly think that Serbia, surrounded by (and up to its neck in) NATO members, burdened with an aggressor image from previous Balkan wars, struggling with a shoddy economy, and on its way to join the EU and fully normalize relations with its ex-Yu neighbors, would attack a NATO and EU member state and risk 1999 all over again over an internal political squabble and some minor sabre rattling? This is Serbia, not North Korea.

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 20):
I understand that the region is nowhere near conflict and the above paragraphs I wrote are an extreme scenario but Croatia cannot be naive and ignore that Serbia has R-73 equipped Mig-29s. Even if just 2 are airworthy, Croatian R-60 equipped Mig-21s will have absolutely no chance and would surrender control of the skies quite easily. The scenario which worries me the most is the one which involves BiH.

I do not want to sound rude, but please read back what you have written. You are proposing that Croatia - at great expense - modernizes 40 year old aircraft to carry expensive high tech weaponry that it will never use against an imaginary attack from an under-equipped air force that (like the CroAF) will fall out of the sky on its own well before getting into firing range?

This is a bit much even for the usual diaspora fear mongering.



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlinemig21umd From Australia, joined Feb 2005, 269 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 17271 times:

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 21):
I do not want to sound rude, but please read back what you have written. You are proposing that Croatia - at great expense - modernizes 40 year old aircraft to carry expensive high tech weaponry that it will never use against an imaginary attack from an under-equipped air force that (like the CroAF) will fall out of the sky on its own well before getting into firing range?

In your original post you mentioned the possibility that the replacement Mig-21s may come from Romania and could be of the Lancer type. If I remember correctly the Lancer is R-73 missile capable so why would it be so expensive to include this type of offensive fire power to the deal especially since you’re of the opinion that 'air policing' by Italy or Hungary might be an even more expensive option for Croatia?

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 21):
Please take no offense, but your views of Serbia - apparently formed under the influence of nationalist Croatian media that regularly spews out nonsense like this

Here I have to take offense because you are making assumptions about me personally which are not correct and when I clearly only have a different view on if and why Croatia needs to have a capable air force. I mention Serbia because for others on this forum it is the most obvious way to illustrate my point. I was trying to be as clear as possible that I do not believe a war in the region is likely especially in the short term but I will admit that I may have painted a bleak picture of Serbia which is not reflective of the current political climate.

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 21):
This is a bit much even for the usual diaspora fear mongering.

This is a bit harsh; remember the Diaspora did a lot for Croatia during the war years.



Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you long to return
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 23, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 17264 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 22):
In your original post you mentioned the possibility that the replacement Mig-21s may come from Romania and could be of the Lancer type. If I remember correctly the Lancer is R-73 missile capable so why would it be so expensive to include this type of offensive fire power to the deal especially since you’re of the opinion that 'air policing' by Italy or Hungary might be an even more expensive option for Croatia?

The same question still stands - why would the CroAF throw away good money (of which there is very little at the best of times) on weapons it has no one to fire at? Especially since the "new" MiGs, whatever their source, would be an interim measure and would be replaced - if all goes well - in 5-7 years time by Western aircraft... aircraft that couldn't use the proposed missiles anyway.

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 22):
Here I have to take offense because you are making assumptions about me personally which are not correct and when I clearly only have a different view on if and why Croatia needs to have a capable air force. I mention Serbia because for others on this forum it is the most obvious way to illustrate my point.

By using an irrelevant, inaccurate, nonsensical - and frankly quite offensive - stereotype?

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 22):
I was trying to be as clear as possible that I do not believe a war in the region is likely especially in the short term but I will admit that I may have painted a bleak picture of Serbia which is not reflective of the current political climate.

Bleak it definitely was (with my emphasis added):

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 20):
I understand that the region is nowhere near conflict and the above paragraphs I wrote are an extreme scenario but Croatia cannot be naive and ignore that Serbia has R-73 equipped Mig-29s

Other than as a factual statement about the Serbian AF's order of battle, I fail to see how this is relevant to the re-equipment of the Croatian Air Force - unless you hold a firm belief that a new cross-border war is going to erupt soon.

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 22):
This is a bit harsh; remember the Diaspora did a lot for Croatia during the war years.

Granted. But the war is over, and the tainted views of some of the diaspora on how the country should be run are now doing more bother than good.



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineF27Friendship From Netherlands, joined Jul 2007, 1125 posts, RR: 5
Reply 24, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 17213 times:

How are talks going with Slovenia to make a joined effort in air policing and QRA?
I believe they have a basic pilot training program with their PC-9s and I guess sharing the cost of a single squadron that could cover both countries would make a lot of sense. Why not team up with Hungary as well? I believe they are leasing their Gripen's which could be more economical than buying. I also understood the offset package with Sweden's industry including interesting options for the Navy and Army was the most promising one.

I hope it will be India, if they choose to buy "new" MiG-21s. The Bison is a very nimble and capable machine (and exotic!).

Nevertheless, I think everyone agrees that the last thing Croatia needs now is brand new fighters.
Are the canadair fire-fighter aircraft replaced already?

I've been in one of the new Mi-171s which looked very nice BTW.

[Edited 2012-03-14 13:37:30]

User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 25, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 17285 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting F27Friendship (Reply 24):
How are talks going with Slovenia to make a joined effort in air policing and QRA? I believe they have a basic pilot training program with their PC-9s and I guess sharing the cost of a single squadron that could cover both countries would make a lot of sense.

All quiet so far. Nothing was heard of the issue for almost a year now... but it seems that the MoD is going through its options, so it's probably not discounted yet  .

Quoting F27Friendship (Reply 24):
I also understood the offset package with Sweden's industry including interesting options for the Navy and Army was the most promising one.

The contents of the package had changed from time to time, but I believe it had included a sizable shipment of brand new RBS-15 missiles, in use by both the Navy and Army.

Quoting F27Friendship (Reply 24):
I hope it will be India, if they choose to buy "new" MiG-21s. The Bison is a very nimble and capable machine (and exotic!).

So far, four MiG-21 options have been mentioned (though not at the same time):
  • 1. Bisons
  • 2. newer bis models from Russia which would be modernized
  • 3. the Yemeni examples currently in Ukraine, also to be modernized (the aircraft themselves are the same vintage as CroAF examples)
  • 4. Lancers (no info on which version)
Quoting F27Friendship (Reply 24):
Are the canadair fire-fighter aircraft replaced already?

They were never meant to be replaced - only complemented by the AT-802s. There are six aircraft in the fleet, with the last delivered in 2010 I believe (coded 811).

Quoting F27Friendship (Reply 24):
I've been in one of the new Mi-171s which looked very nice BTW.

I like the cockpit... it's such a fantastic merge of East and West . You have your maslo and toplivo gauges right next to a Garmin GPS unit and Bendix King radios .



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineBEG2IAH From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 968 posts, RR: 18
Reply 26, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 17248 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

TripleDelta,

It's always nice to read your informed posts. This was a very good read. Thanks.

BEG2IAH



FAA killed the purpose of my old signature: Use of approved electronic devices is now permitted.
User currently offlinemig21umd From Australia, joined Feb 2005, 269 posts, RR: 1
Reply 27, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 17363 times:

Damn, I was just trying to get my view across. Do you react to everyone this way who does not agree with your point of view?

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 23):
By using an irrelevant, inaccurate, nonsensical - and frankly quite offensive - stereotype?

I find this statement offensive. I do not want to dwell too much into politics but Serbia has to at first admit to the mistakes it made in the 90s (4 wars for example) and apologies. Instead they are doing the complete opposite and are trying to not only portray themselves as completely innocent of any wrong doing in the 90s but also as victims including victims of 'Croatian aggression'

Peace and stability in the region....., do we want this? Yes of course but any nation with the slightest lick of dignitary will not allow history to be re-written and affirmed by YOUR above paragraph by saying my comments were offensive and of a serotype nature like as if the 90s never happened and when all I said that if a conflict was to involve Croatia again in the region the most plausible opponent would be Serbia. I mean give me a break! Can we not mention things like this anymore? I bet I could find on this forum people taking about the possibility of war between Iran and Israel, are we going to stop this discussion too because someone might find it offensive? I could go on but out of respect of this forum I will not.

Just so you know I am now in Australia as a result of the war.





Quoting F27Friendship (Reply 24):
I believe they have a basic pilot training program with their PC-9s and I guess sharing the cost of a single squadron that could cover both countries would make a lot of sense. Why not team up with Hungary as well?

I believe we will start to see models such as this form within Europe and makes complete fiscal sense for all the countries you mentioned. At the very least if Slovenia wants to go the way of a fighter force in the future, a joint venture with Croatia is really a no brainer.

Quoting F27Friendship (Reply 24):
I also understood the offset package with Sweden's industry including interesting options for the Navy and Army was the most promising one.

An offset package which If Croatia decides to go it alone would be of great benefit to a country like Croatia by helping to boost the industrial sector. This if negotiated well could attribute to increasing Croatian GDP something which Croatia needs to look at doing. Also, some of the offset packages have been offered up 100% of the initial value of the order, in other words virtually waving away the initial fee for the aircraft. (The operating costs are still there though).



Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you long to return
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 28, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 17342 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 27):
Damn, I was just trying to get my view across. Do you react to everyone this way who does not agree with your point of view?

Your opinion I have nothing against - it's the delivery I find appalling. The war had ended 17 years ago. Many people in Serbia, Bosnia and Croatia have accepted the conflict as a tragic historic event and moved on, repairing and consolidating relations between all the countries of ex-Yu - indeed, in some cases you could not even tell that two decades ago we were lobbing shells at each other. I dare say even that there's a spark of that old spirit of camaraderie that was common back in former Yugoslavia...

And I, as a person who'd been here for the entire war, who'd lost family and friends and spent the better part of his childhood living to the rhythm of air raid sirens (and I was "cosy" some distance from the front), find it offensive to see someone - who wasn't here to see the atrocities that were committed by all sides, someone who still doesn't live here and interact daily with people from ex-Yu republics - throw a spanner into our efforts with barely-concealed references to Serbia as the "Evil Empire", ready and willing to attack Croatia yet again. It's this "victim mentality" and dwelling on the past that keeps the wounds of the war open instead of healing them and moving the issue onwards.

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 27):
I find this statement offensive. I do not want to dwell too much into politics but Serbia has to at first admit to the mistakes it made in the 90s (4 wars for example) and apologies. Instead they are doing the complete opposite and are trying to not only portray themselves as completely innocent of any wrong doing in the 90s but also as victims including victims of 'Croatian aggression'

And pouring fuel on the fire is the way to go? Responding to a clear verbal provocation - intended to do nothing more than irk - by going up in arms? With an attitude like that, why do you consider Croatia to hold a higher moral ground than Serbia if it replies to school ground bullying as if it were a life or death situation?

The other issue I have with the quoted paragraph is that it's not even completely true, and blights an entire population (and government) with select ideas of vocal Serbian radicals. While it still does have some way to go on the issue, Serbia has started making amends for the war; and a significant number of people on the ground and in the ruling echelons accept the denial of the war and its atrocities the same way that Germans accept the denial of the Holocaust. I was quite shocked to be honest to come across Serbs on my travels who openly - and with an obvious feeling of shame - apologized for the war... people who, like me, were in primary school when the conflict started, and had no part in its cause.

Plus, a bonus question - is a set of apologies really worth the delaying of the normalization of relations between our countries? I say not - and am not alone on this issue in Croatia.

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 27):
Peace and stability in the region....., do we want this? Yes of course but any nation with the slightest lick of dignitary will not allow history to be re-written and affirmed by YOUR above paragraph by saying my comments were offensive and of a serotype nature like as if the 90s never happened and when all I said that if a conflict was to involve Croatia again in the region the most plausible opponent would be Serbia.

Nobody said the 90s never happened - I said that the 90s were in the 90s... that is, in the past, and we are in the 2010s. Yet your veiled stabs at the "most plausible opponent" certainly bring back the spirit of the 90s - contradicting your claim that "any nation with the slightest lick of dignitary will not allow history to be re-written".

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 27):
I bet I could find on this forum people taking about the possibility of war between Iran and Israel, are we going to stop this discussion too because someone might find it offensive?

That conflict is plausible - if experts are to be believed, it's only a matter of time, therefore it bears discussion since it influences us all. Croatia and Serbia going to war again - especially in a 90s mentality - is not plausible by a long shot, and only unnecessarily opens old wounds.


Mods, my apologies for going wildly off topic  .

EDIT: typos

[Edited 2012-03-15 01:32:22]


No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 29, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 17328 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

To bring the discussion by to topic, I've found an expanded version of the article I'd mentioned in the opening post: http://www.jutarnji.hr/kupit-cemo-po...am-je-sve-drugo-preskupo/1012242/. It is in Croatian, but I've translated some of the more interesting bits:

Quote:
The Ukrainian side had delivered documents to the Croatian MoD which should prove that the aircraft are in its ownership. As we've learned however, the documents are highly suspect. They state that the aircraft had been imported into the Ukraine on 29 January 2003 by the Swiss company "Scimitar Systems SA". But, according to available information, this company had been founded in Luzerne seven months after it had allegedly imported the aircraft. From the documents sent, it is not possible to discern the origin of the aircraft.

Furthermore, it is unclear why would a country import these aircraft, wait five years to have them overhauled, paint them in the colors of another country and then wait a few more years to sell them. According to available information, the Ukraine is selling them for about a million euros per aircraft. Our sources claim that the price is ridiculously low, which points to the conclusion that there's something wrong with the aircraft. The Ukrainians are also offering a large collection of spare parts to go along with the aircraft, parts which were allegedly produced back in the USSR. Should it buy these aircraft, Croatia would have to install the necessary communication equipment to make them compatible with its own MiGs. Despite this information, the CroAF is, as we've learned, seriously considering this option.
Quote:
The possibility of contracting the surveillance of Croatian airspace to NATO was mentioned several months ago. At the time, the Office of the President has stated that in any dilemma which would involve military jets and the payout of pensions, the president would be in favor of the latter options. In practice this would mean that the airspace would be patrolled by Italian and Hungarian military aircraft.

Croatia has also been offered other options for used aircraft of a newer generation. For example, Russia is offering 12 used MiG-29s for 90 million [euros]. Israeli military officials have, during the president's recent visit to Israel, shown their Kfir C-10 Block 60 (a development of the Mirage) to General Drago Lovric, commander of the Croatian military HQ.

The general offer for 12 aircraft is 235 million euros. Dassault of France is offering 12 of its Mirage F1CTs for 270 million euros. However, all of these are unattainable options for Croatia - as are those involving the acquisition of new aircraft. In this category, the cheapest offer is by Sweden's SAAB, who is offering the lease of 12 aircraft for 750 million euros. The USA, for the same number of F-16, is asking for 1,03 billion euros, while the same from Eurofighter would cost 1,26 billion.
Quote:
Political leaders have to come to a decision by the end of this year, since next year all 10 MiG-21s owned by the CroAF must be grounded.

It's worth noting that of those ten, only a handful are fully operational at any one time.



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineBEG2IAH From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 968 posts, RR: 18
Reply 30, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 17281 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 27):
I find this statement offensive. I do not want to dwell too much into politics but Serbia has to at first admit to the mistakes it made in the 90s (4 wars for example) and apologies. Instead they are doing the complete opposite and are trying to not only portray themselves as completely innocent of any wrong doing in the 90s but also as victims including victims of 'Croatian aggression'

mig21umd,

I'm not sure what's the source of your information, but this simply is not true and your views are extremely biased. Here's one source that contradicts what you wrote: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11689153 There are many more re: Bosnia for example. Serbia has its share of blame for the 90s, but let's not pretend to be naive and say that Croatia, Slovenia, and Bosnia do not.

You should also check your facts and figure out how come hundreds of thousands of Serbs who lived in Croatia prior to 1995 live in Serbia, Germany, and the USA today. They did not move willingly or for economic reasons. There are too many sources to corroborate this.

The reason why we still have no flights between ZAG and BEG and why there is so much hatred is the mentality that you demonstrate here, and to make things even worse you demonstrate it from 10+K miles away from the region.

Maybe you should concentrate on this topic since you know more about MiG21 than politics.

BEG2IAH

[Edited 2012-03-15 09:19:12]


FAA killed the purpose of my old signature: Use of approved electronic devices is now permitted.
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 31, posted (2 years 6 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 17137 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Found a bit of additional news in the papers this morning: in an effort to reduce expenses, the armed forces have announced reductions, layoffs and equipment changes in all its branches, including the Air Force. As per the article, the CroAF is planning the sale of 2-4 PC-9s and both of its An-32s - which I must admit had surprised me, given that they're always out and about, clocking up a decent amount of flight hours, and were the only AF assets that could be flown to Afghanistan to support the Croatian contingent (and the only fixed-wing transports in the country). The modernization of the fighter fleet has made it through the cuts though....


No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 32, posted (2 years 6 months 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 16942 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Just to sidetrack the MiG-21 issue a bit further, it looks like the MoD will indeed buy some new equipment next year - the PC-12M Spectre(s), intended to partially replace the two An-32s set for sale (Link in Croatian)  .

The aircraft - whose hourly costs are stated as an agreeable USD 530/hour - would be used for short-range troop transport (supplementing the Mi-171 fleet), as well as special forces parachute jumps, previously done from the An-32.



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 33, posted (2 years 6 months 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 16764 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Looks like the MiGs really are here to stay. According to this article (in Croatian), the President - acting as Supreme Commander - and his cabinet have sided with the proposal of keeping the existing fleet flying until a proper replacement can be bought. The Minister of Defense is also known to support this idea.

In view of the recommendations of MiG technicians who had inspected the entire fleet (both grounded and airworthy), half the aircraft will be scrapped and half overhauled, most likely by Aerostar of Romania (who had already overhauled part of the fleet in 2003). It is said that this deal also opens the door to quick acquisition of several Lancers - eight single seaters and four twin-stick models - that would cost up to €20 million.



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineOroka From Canada, joined Dec 2006, 913 posts, RR: 0
Reply 34, posted (2 years 6 months 1 day ago) and read 16743 times:

Buy some Gripens, make a deal with Hungary to place a squadron at their base. Shared support facilities, training, logistics... even mixed squadrons, with dual markings (like the Navy/Marine hornets), patrolling all of Hungary and Croatia. Croatia can wind down support for soviet aircraft without having to develop new systems, simply pay for operation. Maybe have a 'forward' base in Croatia just to have jets stationed there.

While yes, the Gripens are more expensive, the savings on service and support will help offset that.


User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 35, posted (2 years 6 months 1 day ago) and read 16738 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting Oroka (Reply 34):
Buy some Gripens, make a deal with Hungary to place a squadron at their base. Shared support facilities, training, logistics... even mixed squadrons, with dual markings (like the Navy/Marine hornets), patrolling all of Hungary and Croatia. Croatia can wind down support for soviet aircraft without having to develop new systems, simply pay for operation. Maybe have a 'forward' base in Croatia just to have jets stationed there.

Given that little of this system would physically be in Croatia - and that the CroAF would have reduced control over patrolling its airspace - I gather it would be simpler to outsource everything to Hungary (and/or other NATO allies) like Slovenia did and disband the fighter wing. While an arrangement like you proposed would keep Croatia's hand in with its own jets, and give pilots the chance to stay fast jet rated, the economics might be an issue - you are paying quite a lot more than you would if air policing were outsourced, but you have little to show for it in country...



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineOroka From Canada, joined Dec 2006, 913 posts, RR: 0
Reply 36, posted (2 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 16610 times:

It could be a joint effort, the patrol needs of Croatia and Hungary would be the same mission, it would cover both countries, not just fly down the border between the countries.

There could always be a forward deployed flight in Croatia, just the main base would be in Hungary. Perhaps an offset could be arranged where cargo operations are out of Croatia and combine those assets too.


Having something to show for it is a big element in my opinion for a nation paying taxes. Seeing Croatian jets over Croatia is a morale booster, and public opinion is what gets funding increases.


User currently offlineSAS A340 From Sweden, joined Jul 2000, 781 posts, RR: 0
Reply 37, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 14665 times:

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 33):
Looks like the MiGs really are here to stay.

or not.....

Quoting Oroka (Reply 34):
Buy some Gripens

According to a Swedish newspaper,Croatia is closer to a 8-12 Gripen buy....
Link only in Swedish.
http://www.di.se/#!/artiklar/2012/10/8/kroatien-narmar-sig-jas-kop/

Bing translate

The country's defense minister Ante Kotromanovic, told the newspaper Jutarjni List the final quote from Sweden will be on Wednesday this week.According to the newspaper, the Croatian Defense Minister interested in purchasing eight or twelve Jas Gripen. In addition, Defence export agency have promised counter-trade of 15 billion kronor.



It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1824 posts, RR: 0
Reply 38, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 14562 times:

If it was possible maybe Serbia+Croatia+Slovenia could pool some fighters, say a few gripens. With Turkey growing in power and influence, these 3 nations should take note for the future. I don't know what to really think about the modern Turkey.

User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 39, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 14396 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting SAS A340 (Reply 37):
The country's defense minister Ante Kotromanovic, told the newspaper Jutarjni List the final quote from Sweden will be on Wednesday this week.According to the newspaper, the Croatian Defense Minister interested in purchasing eight or twelve Jas Gripen. In addition, Defence export agency have promised counter-trade of 15 billion kronor.

What the Swedish article failed to mention is that in Jutarnji list Kotromanovic was also quoted saying "The MoD does not have the funds for buying new aircraft". The MoD budget is under strain from paying the EUR 100 million Patria AMV buy, and the whole of the armed forces are preparing for massive layoffs; the Croatian article article mentions that considering the above, it is hard to believe that the MoD would dish out a billion Euros for new jets.

Quoting sweair (Reply 38):
If it was possible maybe Serbia+Croatia+Slovenia could pool some fighters, say a few gripens. With Turkey growing in power and influence, these 3 nations should take note for the future. I don't know what to really think about the modern Turkey.

Just like with Serbia and Croatia, the conflicts between the Balkan Slavs and Turks are a thing of the past (several centuries past to be exact). If anything, virtually all the countries in the region (at least those from ex-Yugoslavia) have very good relations with Turkey, both politically and economically.



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 40, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 14380 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Another issue that could throw the financial spanner into the Gripen works is the MoD's intention to modernize the country's old Mi-8 fleet. Still flying alongside newer Mi-171s, these helicopters are starting to show their age and haven't been substantially modernized or upgraded since they were acquired in the early to mid 90s. While no decision has yet been reached, the solution - as announced by the MoD - will either be a thorough overhaul, or withdrawal from service and replacement by additional Mi-171s... both of which will require significant funds.


No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineSAS A340 From Sweden, joined Jul 2000, 781 posts, RR: 0
Reply 41, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 14321 times:

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 39):
it is hard to believe that the MoD would dish out a billion Euros for new jets.

Lets wait and see what SAAB propose on wednesday...perhaps SAAB offer Croatia to use the Gripen at zero cost,the first two years....  



It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 42, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 14319 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting SAS A340 (Reply 41):
Lets wait and see what SAAB propose on wednesday...perhaps SAAB offer Croatia to use the Gripen at zero cost,the first two years....

Actually, that was mentioned at some point in the negotiations (I believe recently as well) - the first two years Croatia would be able to use the jets free (excluding fuel naturally), under the condition that it buys them in full at the end of that period  .



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlinejollo From Italy, joined Aug 2011, 226 posts, RR: 0
Reply 43, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 14307 times:

I've been waiting for someone to take on the M-346 Master sponsor role, but since nobody's stepping forward I'll take the bait:

* 5 new examples would fit in a 100 M€ budget (a lot less than as many Gripens), and a 2-year free lease agreement would have better chances of working out ok
* born as a trainer, so no need of a separate training a/c
* climb rate in excess of 6000 m/min (20000 ft/min), thrust/weight ratio > 1: enough for intercept missions in a small footprint
* air-to-air weapons are already integrated (2 AIM-9 on wingtip rails): sufficient for a credible air policing role
* completely integrated with NATO equipment, would be an ideal transition aircraft towards NATO standards and interoperability
* can be retained long-term as a trainer if/when better economics allow for more capable aircrafts
* built for low operating and maintenance costs
* manufacturer is based practically next door

The Master would make a fair amount of sense for the requirement.

[Edited 2012-10-09 07:44:13]

User currently offlineSAS A340 From Sweden, joined Jul 2000, 781 posts, RR: 0
Reply 44, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 14082 times:

Today it came.....

http://fxm.se/blog/gripen-erbjudande-till-kroatien

Bing translate:

Today, leaving the Defence export agency, FXM, an offer to Croatia for the purchase of eight JAS 39 Gripen aircraft.The Swedish State, FXM, a deal involving the sale of eight Planes of version c/d. the proposal also includes a support and educational contracts for the pilots and flight engineers, as well as a financial solution."We are pleased to submit this offer, drawn up in close cooperation with Croatia. The Gripen has an excellent ability to maintain national sovereignty and to contribute to international efforts. The system is NATO-interoperable. It is one of the best fighter in the world at the same time, systems are effective and robust with low life cycle costs, says Peter Göthe, Deputy Director General of FXM.-To the Croatian air force should be operational without interruption when their current MiG-21s: or taken out of service, offered a solution where C/D-plan very quickly, within a year, may be operational, "says Jerry Lindbergh, who is project manager for Croatia on FXM.



It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 45, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 14032 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting SAS A340 (Reply 44):
Today it came.....

Now we wait  .

Though I myself am not really hopeful on a positive outcome - no matter how hard SAAB pitches its case. The country's BDP is in the red and expected to drop by another 1.5% next year... and, aviation-wise, there's an ongoing situation with OU that may require some significant funds to patch up, funds that may very well be sapped from the "fighter fund" (if there is one)...



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineSAS A340 From Sweden, joined Jul 2000, 781 posts, RR: 0
Reply 46, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 14023 times:

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 45):
Now we wait

Yes,should be interesting to see the outcome  . Do we have a date for final decision?



It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 47, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 13996 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting SAS A340 (Reply 46):
Do we have a date for final decision?

Nothing reported so far.



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 48, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 13965 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

A new (albeit short) article that has been published recently suggests that the deal - IF it goes through - would be signed by the beginning of January, since that's the limit specified in the contract. In that case, the jets would be delivered in January 2014.


No plane, no gain.
User currently offlinemig21umd From Australia, joined Feb 2005, 269 posts, RR: 1
Reply 49, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 13879 times:

So if the contract is signed in January 2013, then the question is will Croatia be in a position to start paying for the aircraft from January 2015?

Also reported somewhere......, can't remember where and could not find the link but it was recent, a study showed that the Grippen is by far the most affordable of the newer combat aircraft type at about $4500 per flight hour, compared to around 15,000 for the Rafael and almost $20,000 for the Eurofighter. Any idea how much the Mig 21s are per flight hour?



Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you long to return
User currently offlinemandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6862 posts, RR: 75
Reply 50, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 13872 times:

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 8):
Granted, this doesn't happen all that often and on its own doesn't warrant a full-blown fighter. A better solution I think could be the KAI F/A-50 - it's cheaper to buy and operate than a "classic" fighter, it has just enough performance while still being supersonic, it can serve on paper as a combat aircraft and still be used for day-to-day training. If anything - given that it's one of only two modern supersonic trainers - it can also be used for joint training with other NATO countries
Quoting Devilfish (Reply 10):
However, I agree that KAI's TA-50 would be a good, albeit costlier choice. Don't know how YAK-130 could fit in the political scheme of things.

Indonesia reviewed the L-159, Yak-130, M-146, and T/F/A-50... the latter won. Overall it's a better aircraft, cheap running costs, expandable capabilities, and no major airbase infrastructure change requirements (we put this as a requirement as we look to expand both western and eastern types).

One major winner is the dash capability for interception, that's where it wins. It loses out on price, and everything else is about equal with the above.

Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 11):
What is the price difference between the Yak-130 and the M-346?

Public figures are about US$5m difference... the final offer prices, are steeper in the difference.

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 14):
One possibility might be the old Swiss F-5s? The Austrians rented some while awaiting their Gripens. Where are those F-5s today? I have heard that they were as good as new - very well kept by the Swiss Air Force (but then I think that I heard that from a Swiss source).

Those F-5s are just too cost effective we don't want to retire them !    But they're limited to daytime interception. Good for point-dash-intercepts...

Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 14):
Otherwise, you mentioned yourself old F-16 Block 15. The Americans may still have such old birds in storage in good condition, and they might offer them on a tight budget. Just don't think that those planes are comparable to new - or old and updated F-16s when talking combat. They can't carry the modern weapons. And maintenance will be very expensive for a small fleet when done in-house. But maybe Greece will be happy to help with that.

The required overhauls and upgrades are a nightmare, and add the infrastructure change requirements... Even for our previously low-tech Air Force, effective deployment of our F-16s were limited due to their 'requirements'... It's only now that we have both the F-16s and Su-27/30s we know how they can work together at remote deployments, but the main homebase... BIG differences. Our Airbases were mainly for MiG-21 support standards... putting the F-5s and A-4s didn't require a lot... add the Sukhois, no major change... but the F-16s... different story.

---

The Gripens and their lease packages... always make my head turn! Expensive planes, but the lease packages are... *hey, even we had our heads turned*



When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 51, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 13845 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Quoting mig21umd (Reply 49):
So if the contract is signed in January 2013, then the question is will Croatia be in a position to start paying for the aircraft from January 2015?

If the deal includes the mentioned provision for a two-year free lease period. The specifics keep changing; the newest info I've heard is that SAAB's offer now included buying one of the country's financially questionable shipbuilding works...

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 50):
One major winner is the dash capability for interception, that's where it wins. It loses out on price, and everything else is about equal with the above.

Interception capability is realistically the only useful performance parameter in Croatia at this time - the ability to quickly climb within the confines of the country and catch up with and identify an unknown aircraft fly in the upper flight levels. Apart from that, there's very little the CroAF jet fleet could do - whatever its type - given the lack of a developed logistics train behind them...



No plane, no gain.
User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
Reply 52, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 13994 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
PHOTO SCREENER

Even though "unofficial" is used as every second word, a new newspaper article sheds some light on SAAB's offer  . Some of the highlights as:

  • the offer comprises eight aircraft (an undisclosed mix of C and D models)
  • payment would be either in the form of a leasing agreement or an outright buy. Both would include delayed payment (doesn't say how much), while the former also "agreeable" interest
  • the price itself is quoted as EUR 500 million, but it is not known whether that includes armament and crew training
  • the said training would be provided by Hungary. Also, Hungary has in principle agreed to lend Croatia a few aircraft to cover the gap between the withdrawal of the current MiG fleet introduction of its own aircraft (which would arrive a minimum of two years after the signing of the contract)
  • unofficially, Sweden has also offered an offset package in the value of the actual aircraft buy
  • additionally, Sweden is reportedly prepared to buy one of the country's major shipyards and ensure it business for the next several years
  • also proposed is that Sweden rents 300.000 hectares of arable land in Croatia; the rent for this land would then go into paying the jets

    If the above is true, SAAB is beginning to sound increasingly desperate to sell the Gripen to anyone at any price...



  • No plane, no gain.
    User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1824 posts, RR: 0
    Reply 53, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 13972 times:

    The current Gripen is not that modern really, it is mostly a 90´s design with roots in the 80´s. With the NG it will be more equal to other current fighters. Swedes do think it the best of the best naturally, but IMO balanced opinion its just average in this world.

    User currently offlinejollo From Italy, joined Aug 2011, 226 posts, RR: 0
    Reply 54, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 13953 times:

    Quoting mandala499 (Reply 50):
    Indonesia reviewed the L-159, Yak-130, M-146, and T/F/A-50... the latter won.
    [...]
    One major winner is the dash capability for interception, that's where it wins.

    That's because of the afterburner, isn't it? Otherwhise, on dry thrust the M-346 is sligthly better and the a/c is significantly lighter, should climb better.


    User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
    Reply 55, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks ago) and read 13923 times:
    AIRLINERS.NET CREW
    PHOTO SCREENER

    Some updated information filtering in through the press: the total offer is priced at EUR 611 million (excluding interest), which covers eight aircraft and training for flight crews in the duration of 15 hours basic and 50 hours combat. Also, it is stated that yearly maintenance costs for this fleet would be around EUR 14 million.

    The official echelons involved in the deal are reported to have three major misgivings:

  • eight aircraft are considered too few to for the requirements of the CroAF
  • the amount of training (both basic and combat) is also considered very inadequate
  • no armament of any kind is included in the price, which would require additional permits from the US


  • Indications are - if my interpretation of the article's final paragraph is correct - that the MoD committee is likely to scrub the deal and retain the MiG-21 fleet. As an interim measure, the jets will be upgraded at a foreign overhaul center. A decision is - again if I read it correctly - expected on Monday.

    Link in Croatian: http://defender.hr/republika-hrvatsk...00-milijuna-kuna-za-odrzavanje.php

    [Edited 2012-10-11 06:34:59]


    No plane, no gain.
    User currently offlineSAS A340 From Sweden, joined Jul 2000, 781 posts, RR: 0
    Reply 56, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 13891 times:

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 55):
    eight aircraft are considered too few to for the requirements of the CroAF

    but still unaffordable?

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 55):
    the amount of training (both basic and combat) is also considered very inadequate

    But still unaffordable?

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 55):
    Also, it is stated that yearly maintenance costs for this fleet would be around EUR 14 million.

    Also that unaffordable?

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 52):
    If the above is true, SAAB is beginning to sound increasingly desperate to sell the Gripen to anyone at any price...

    But still unafodabble?

    Well,SAAB cant give them away for free,that's for sure,i guess putting a couple of $$$ to repaint your MIG fleet is the best solution at the time..  



    It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
    User currently offlinemandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6862 posts, RR: 75
    Reply 57, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 13875 times:

    Quoting jollo (Reply 54):
    That's because of the afterburner, isn't it? Otherwhise, on dry thrust the M-346 is sligthly better and the a/c is significantly lighter, should climb better.

    T-50?
    Dry? 11,925lbf Wet? 17,700lbf
    Weight? 14,200 to 29,700lbs.

    M346?
    12,500lbf (2x 6,250), Weight? 10,165lbs - 20,945lbs.

    Sure... speeds?
    M1.4-1.5 for T-50 and M1.2 for M346.
    Higher service ceiling for the T-50.

    But when you want to climb fast, you give it all it's got... even if wet...
    For us, T-50 was the better aircraft... for CroAF? M346 maybe as or better suited... it all depends on the specifics of the requirements.

    In terms of combat capability, M346 and T50 were the winners... training capability, was all except the L-159... For price... well, you know... (I guess the massive discounts for "going Korean" for our military was a key factor too!    )

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 55):
    The official echelons involved in the deal are reported to have three major misgivings:

    Aaaargh! Noooo!!!! This must be frustrating for you!



    When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
    User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
    Reply 58, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 13853 times:
    AIRLINERS.NET CREW
    PHOTO SCREENER

    Quoting SAS A340 (Reply 56):
    but still unaffordable?

    Yes. If I understand what is reported correctly, the deal is considered to be too expensive for what it offers. SAAB had been promising mountains and valleys over the past years, but has - by the looks of things - failed to deliver. However, only the official end report will tell for sure what's going on.

    Quoting SAS A340 (Reply 56):
    Well,SAAB cant give them away for free,that's for sure,i guess putting a couple of $$$ to repaint your MIG fleet is the best solution at the time..

    Some wounded pride here I see. But, purely for comparison, for the price of one Gripen + training and spares - let's say a rough tenth of the above price, EUR 61 million - the CroAF can buy up to 12 Bisons from India. While not "spring chickens", these aircraft are well equipped and no slouches (having proved themselves at Red Flag), and have a decade more life in them. In addition, they can carry the armaments currently in stock with the CroAF and have virtually no additional training or re-equipment costs (apart from buying and shipping them).

    All of that makes them an easy and cost effective temporary solution, which is significantly better than draining an already crippled budget by accepting an inferior offer (especially if an alternative exists). The same goes for Romanian Lancers that were on the cards as well.

    The Gripen is neither irreplacable, nor the only solution to the CroAF's ills.

    Quoting mandala499 (Reply 57):
    Aaaargh! Noooo!!!! This must be frustrating for you!

    Just another episode of this soap opera  . One more classic for the Big Book of Lengthy Croatian Public Acquisitions...



    No plane, no gain.
    User currently offlineSAS A340 From Sweden, joined Jul 2000, 781 posts, RR: 0
    Reply 59, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 13848 times:

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 58):
    Some wounded pride here I see

    No worries   It is what it is,just to move on...  
    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 58):
    The Gripen is neither irreplacable, nor the only solution to the CroAF's ills.

    That i am sure of  



    It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
    User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
    Reply 60, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 13756 times:
    AIRLINERS.NET CREW
    PHOTO SCREENER

    Some additional (slightly more concrete) info from one of the country's biggest daily newspapers...

    Apparently, the EUR 611 million price quoted above is WITHOUT air and ground crew training. When training - as well as the interest on the 10 year credit loan - are included, the price is calculated to reach up to EUR 750 million. This is equivalent to the EUR 750 million deal offered previously - but a deal that had included 12 A/B models, the number of which the CroAF had deemed necessary.

    Given that under this new offer the CroAF would get 33% fewer aircraft for the same money - aircraft which would now include unnecessary features like inflight refueling - it is understandable why the MoD is not happy with SAAB. Additional fuel on the fire was the previously mentioned 15 hours basic and 50 hours combat training, which has - according to the article - "angered the MoD representatives", who consider it to be inadequate for a transition from a 3rd gen to a significantly more sophisticated 4th gen aircraft.

    But, the common denominator in all press reports is the need to wait for Monday's final decision to get all the details  .

    EDIT: found a link to the online version of the article (in Croatian): http://www.jutarnji.hr/propada-li-po...eura--i-to-bez-naoruzanja/1059409/

    [Edited 2012-10-12 02:11:17]


    No plane, no gain.
    User currently offlinesweair From Sweden, joined Nov 2011, 1824 posts, RR: 0
    Reply 61, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 13753 times:

    Sweden ordered 204 Gripen and currently use about 100, we have a pile of them not being used and with the meager defence budget there will probably be less than 80 used in the future. Scrap metal or a fire sale is in place   Hey its just tax payer money!

    User currently offlinejollo From Italy, joined Aug 2011, 226 posts, RR: 0
    Reply 62, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 13691 times:

    Quoting mandala499 (Reply 57):
    T-50?
    Dry? 11,925lbf Wet? 17,700lbf
    Weight? 14,200 to 29,700lbs.

    M346?
    12,500lbf (2x 6,250), Weight? 10,165lbs - 20,945lbs.


    Thanks for the data, but help me figure this out: at half-load (short-range air intercept mission, most of the load is fuel: let's say 21,950lbs for the T-50 and 15,555lbs for the M346) the M346 has roughly the same thrust/weight ratio as a wet T-50 (circa 0.8). How comes it loses on climb performance? Perhaps because on afterburner weight drops faster?

    Quoting mandala499 (Reply 57):
    Higher service ceiling for the T-50.

    That's definitely a plus for an air policing mission, I suspect that going wet is key again.

    Quoting mandala499 (Reply 57):
    I guess the massive discounts for "going Korean" for our military was a key factor too!

    Yeah, no guessing here   


    User currently offlinemandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6862 posts, RR: 75
    Reply 63, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 13549 times:

    Quoting jollo (Reply 62):
    Thanks for the data, but help me figure this out: at half-load (short-range air intercept mission, most of the load is fuel: let's say 21,950lbs for the T-50 and 15,555lbs for the M346) the M346 has roughly the same thrust/weight ratio as a wet T-50 (circa 0.8). How comes it loses on climb performance? Perhaps because on afterburner weight drops faster?

    There's more to it than just numbers. The thrust numbers are thrust generated at sea level... and when not moving.
    Once you put in speed, and altitude, well, heaps of factors come into play. Some engines drop off thrust earlier than others as you go up... some can sustain it better due to better intake design, etc, etc, etc. But what's interesting is that the L-159 uses the same engine as the M-346... and the engine has a centrifugal HP compressor... *just out of interest*...

    Again, each method has it's advantages and disadvantages, usually set up in the design criteria. Eg, if it wants to have a complex engine intake to allow for higher speeds & altitudes, it could, but it would mean loss of performance somewhere else. Otherwise, the M-346 would simply end up as a modernized AIDC-CK... (uses the afterburning version of the same engine)   

    Quoting jollo (Reply 62):
    That's definitely a plus for an air policing mission, I suspect that going wet is key again.

    Again, the engine package is a factor... Going to that height for the T-50 on dry thrust only just means it takes longer.   
    If CroAF's interception needs are largely in mid-altitutes (ie: 15-30kft) then the M346 is definitely the better choice. If above, then we have to look at the criteria details. The M346 is designed to have the edge on the lateral axis (which is where it and the Yak-130 rules), at a cost to its vertical playing field... the T-50 is more on the vertical axis advantage than the lateral... that's why the "expected interception" altitude is an important factor in the selection.

    If you want a cheap Gripen... get a T-50... it is literally a Korean knock-off version of the Gripen... (even got the same engine block)... A 1/3 to 1/2 the price...    But kiss the M2.0 capability goodbye and be stuck with M1.4-1.5...



    When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
    User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
    Reply 64, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 13539 times:
    AIRLINERS.NET CREW
    PHOTO SCREENER

    Quoting mandala499 (Reply 63):
    If CroAF's interception needs are largely in mid-altitutes (ie: 15-30kft) then the M346 is definitely the better choice.

    Most of the traffic above Croatia comprises aircraft in transit from Western Europe to the Near and Middle East, which implies altitudes between 30 and 40,000 ft - but can also include the lower 50s if you factor in bizjet traffic heading to the Eastern Mediterranean.

    Quoting mandala499 (Reply 63):
    But kiss the M2.0 capability goodbye and be stuck with M1.4-1.5...

    M2.0 capability is a waste in Croatia - the country's not big enough to warrant it  . Along its longest axis you only have 500 km to play with, border to border. And given that the two main airbases are right in the middle of the country's east-west and north-south axes, you realistically have a 250 km radius to work in from each one. In these conditions, even M1.5 is a bit of a stretch...



    No plane, no gain.
    User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
    Reply 65, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 13517 times:
    AIRLINERS.NET CREW
    PHOTO SCREENER

    The plot thickens... a new article (in Croatian here) makes mention of another offer that had been received on Thursday, this time from Russia. As part of a renewed economic "push" on Croatia, Rosoboronexport is offering a yet-unmentioned tripartite agreement by which the CroAF could get a dozen Hungarian MiG-29s currently in storage at Kecskemet Airbase.

    The deal includes 10 single-seaters and two two-seat trainers at a fixed EUR 90 million price. The aircraft hadn't flown for two years, but MiG techs who had recently examined them say that they are perfectly airworthy. The jets require some modernization to bring them up to NATO standards though, which would increase their price to between EUR 110 and 130 million (the upgrade would be done "in house" at the ZTC maintenance facility in Zagreb). Russia is also offering an offset package in the value of EUR 440 to 520 million, which would be spent on the country's energy industry and shipbuilding.

    However, the article also mentions that it is questionable whether the MoD will consider this offer, since the committee tasked with the issue had already recommended that an overhaul of the current 21 fleet be undertaken in lieu of buying new aircraft.

    EDIT: Quite an interesting and seemingly well-rounded offer... on the plus side it:
  • gives the CroAF an adequate number of aircraft for an agreeable price (all things considered)
  • gives the CroAF an aircraft type preferred by its crews, with climb performance that only the Typhoon can match (of the aircraft originally considered)
  • does not require an immediate drastic shift in maintenance and training, and can make do with existing facilities
  • comes with a hefty offset package that props up some of the traditionally most important Croatian industries
  • includes a lot of work for domestic companies

    However, issues include:
  • costly maintenance due to double the engine count. However, unlike with the -21, parts for the type are still in production, so reliability would probably be better
  • costlier day-to-day operations, since the -29 is the biggest drinker of all types considered
  • NATO may not be all that happy with the choice - especially when any prolonged operation of the -29 opens the doors to easy acquisition of -35s, something NATO has already hinted it's none too happy about (putting it lightly)
  • the fact that the deal may be more trouble than it's worth; as a stop-gap measure it does buy some time until the financial situation improves - but involves not-all-that-insignificant funds to implement various operational changes that may yield very little benefit over keeping and patching the -21 fleet when all is said and done


  • [Edited 2012-10-13 13:26:46]


    No plane, no gain.
    User currently offlineDevilfish From Philippines, joined Jan 2006, 4839 posts, RR: 1
    Reply 66, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 13481 times:

    Quoting mig21umd (Reply 49):
    a study showed that the Grippen is by far the most affordable of the newer combat aircraft type at about $4500 per flight hour, compared to around 15,000 for the Rafael and almost $20,000 for the Eurofighter.

    This is certainly a major, very important factor. But also critical for us is the need for an advanced jet trainer minus the expense of a separate fleet.

    Quoting mandala499 (Reply 50):
    Indonesia reviewed the L-159, Yak-130, M-146, and T/F/A-50... the latter won. Overall it's a better aircraft, cheap running costs, expandable capabilities, and no major airbase infrastructure change requirements (we put this as a requirement as we look to expand both western and eastern types).

    Any feedback on alleged T/A-50 wing issues when loaded with ordnance? Alas, new hangars are intended to be built here...as the potential site, originally meant for 'Bugs, had long since been converted to a civilian passenger terminal.

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 52):
    If the above is true, SAAB is beginning to sound increasingly desperate to sell the Gripen to anyone at any price...

    Well, they know who is eager to get its hands on some...(hint, hint)  .

    Quoting mandala499 (Reply 57):
    training capability, was all except the L-159

    Iraq seems determined to get those.....

    http://www.defensenews.com/article/2...odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

    Quoting mandala499 (Reply 57):
    For price... well, you know... (I guess the massive discounts for "going Korean" for our military was a key factor too!

    I'd like to believe that we'd have a fallback position roughly along those lines   .

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 60):

    Apparently, the EUR 611 million price quoted above is WITHOUT air and ground crew training. When training - as well as the interest on the 10 year credit loan - are included, the price is calculated to reach up to EUR 750 million. This is equivalent to the EUR 750 million deal offered previously - but a deal that had included 12 A/B models

    That is comparable to the $590M "rumored" deal here for 12 T/A-50s...no details of add-ons beyond the basic airframes. I think we'd be fine for the next 30 years or so with the current C/D models, especially if those would be new-builds.

    Quoting sweair (Reply 61):
    Scrap metal or a fire sale is in place

    Should be first in line with a trailer at the scrapyard...  .

    Quoting mandala499 (Reply 63):
    If you want a cheap Gripen... get a T-50... it is literally a Korean knock-off version of the Gripen... (even got the same engine block)... A 1/3 to 1/2 the price...

    Unfortunately, the price floated for us was around $28M per frame...with nothing definite on what would be included.

    [Edited 2012-10-13 15:24:26]


    "Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
    User currently offlinemandala499 From Indonesia, joined Aug 2001, 6862 posts, RR: 75
    Reply 67, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 13464 times:

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 64):
    Most of the traffic above Croatia comprises aircraft in transit from Western Europe to the Near and Middle East, which implies altitudes between 30 and 40,000 ft - but can also include the lower 50s if you factor in bizjet traffic heading to the Eastern Mediterranean.

    Given that and the size of the country, ironically... MiG-21 is ideal... if only today is 20 years ago!   

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 64):
    M2.0 capability is a waste in Croatia - the country's not big enough to warrant it

    It depends on which school of thought you'd talk to... But, most would agree that anything above 1.2 is enough, as long as you have the climb.

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 65):
    which the CroAF could get a dozen Hungarian MiG-29s currently in storage at Kecskemet Airbase.

    While it looks ideal (and as a point-defence asset, NATO can't complain, but use it for anything beyond that, some will raise eyebrows)...

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 65):
    the fact that the deal may be more trouble than it's worth; as a stop-gap measure it does buy some time until the financial situation improves - but involves not-all-that-insignificant funds to implement various operational changes that may yield very little benefit over keeping and patching the -21 fleet when all is said and done

    An expensive if not "task-intense" stop-gap measure.

    Quoting Devilfish (Reply 66):
    Iraq seems determined to get those.....

    The L-159 probably suited Iraq's requirements better. They had experiences with the -159s predecessor. And there's one thing where it really wins, PRICE!
    It didn't suit us because we wanted it to replace the Hawk 53s, and provide LIFT for the Sukhoi and F16 fleets (let the Hawk100/200s do it themselves with the -100), and point defence capability to replace the F-5s and augment the additional F-16s... Big shopping list for a single airframe   
    If we scrap the point defence capability, T-50 would have been out of the picture and the L-159 would rank higher.

    Quoting Devilfish (Reply 66):
    Any feedback on alleged T/A-50 wing issues when loaded with ordnance? Alas, new hangars are intended to be built here...as the potential site, originally meant for 'Bugs, had long since been converted to a civilian passenger terminal.

    Nothing yet... am keeping an ear out.. but we don't intend to load them to the max...

    Quoting Devilfish (Reply 66):
    Unfortunately, the price floated for us was around $28M per frame...with nothing definite on what would be included.

    They were originally quoted as higher than that for us... but there would be little additional costs, and it's offset with other contracts (submarine upgrades for us by Korea, Korean orders and MRO cooperation for the CN-235s to them, and for the KT-1 + T-50 for us)... Without these offsets, for a European country, these T-50s would be expensive... (and I heard the Gripen supporters finally gave up after we selected the T-50  &nbsp .

    Quoting Devilfish (Reply 66):
    Should be first in line with a trailer at the scrapyard.

    I'll join you!   

    Quoting Devilfish (Reply 66):
    I'd like to believe that we'd have a fallback position roughly along those lines

    For PH? Given the history with the F-5s, the T-50 sounds ideal, but it depends on the other items on the shopping list too!



    When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
    User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
    Reply 68, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 13090 times:
    AIRLINERS.NET CREW
    PHOTO SCREENER

    Some more news: looks like the MiGs really are here to stay. According to this article (in Croatian), the procurement committee has decided to keep the existing fleet and sent it on a life-extension program to a foreign overhaul center. The center has been decided on, but not yet been named (the two contenders are facilities in the Ukraine and Romania).

    The decision will be final/if when approved by the Defense Council, which will be called to session in the near future.



    No plane, no gain.
    User currently offlineSAS A340 From Sweden, joined Jul 2000, 781 posts, RR: 0
    Reply 69, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 13009 times:

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 68):
    looks like the MiGs really are here to stay

    Since we couldn't sell you this
    View Large View Medium
    Click here for bigger photo!

    Photo © Elia Lechner




    perhaps this one is of grater interest,it stands in front of a outlet store in Sweden....  
    View Large View Medium
    Click here for bigger photo!

    Photo © Patric Borg



    Jokes aside,I'm sure there are much airtime left in your MIG,s......perhaps enough to make them last until croatia's economy recovers



    It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
    User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
    Reply 70, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 12967 times:
    AIRLINERS.NET CREW
    PHOTO SCREENER

    Quoting SAS A340 (Reply 69):
    Jokes aside,I'm sure there are much airtime left in your MIG,s......perhaps enough to make them last until croatia's economy recovers

    Actually, virtually all operational examples are nearing the ends of their service lives, which is expected to happen during 2013. The whole fighter competition was launched specifically because of this; however, it appears that jets can be put through a life extension program which would give them about five to ten years of service more  .



    No plane, no gain.
    User currently offlineDevilfish From Philippines, joined Jan 2006, 4839 posts, RR: 1
    Reply 71, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 12964 times:

    Quoting mandala499 (Reply 67):
    For PH? Given the history with the F-5s, the T-50 sounds ideal

    All the more if it would win this.....

    http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...t-generation-trainer-needs-377784/

    Quoting mandala499 (Reply 67):
    but it depends on the other items on the shopping list too!

    Would be glad to discuss it in the PH thread as I have derailed this one too much already (my apologies, Triple Delta).

    So, going back.....

    Quoting SAS A340 (Reply 69):
    perhaps this one is of grater interest,it stands in front of a outlet store in Sweden
    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 70):
    Actually, virtually all operational examples are nearing the ends of their service lives, which is expected to happen during 2013. The whole fighter competition was launched specifically because of this; however, it appears that jets can be put through a life extension program

    Maybe there are more where this came from which would not be to much of a pain to put back in service?

    View Large View Medium
    Click here for bigger photo!

    Photo © Svetlan Simov-Aviationlistonline




    "Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
    User currently onlinethunderboltdrgn From Sweden, joined Jan 2012, 631 posts, RR: 0
    Reply 72, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 12964 times:

    Quoting Devilfish (Reply 71):
    Maybe there are more where this came from which would not be to much of a pain to put back in service?

    Saab Viggens? They have all been scrapped. Even the 37-1 prototype have been scrapped.
    Or almost all of them. there is 1 in flying condition owned by swafh.



    Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
    User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
    Reply 73, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 12090 times:
    AIRLINERS.NET CREW
    PHOTO SCREENER

    Apparently, these may be the very aircraft that the CroAF is intending to buy; the previously mentioned Yemeni examples that were sent to the Ukraine to be overhauled and ended up staying there: http://spotters.net.ua/search/?airli...ircraft=Mikoyan-Gurevich+MiG-21bis. Possibly being flight tested prior to sale...


    No plane, no gain.
    User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
    Reply 74, posted (1 year 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 11899 times:
    AIRLINERS.NET CREW
    PHOTO SCREENER

    Quoting TripleDelta (Reply 73):
    Apparently, these may be the very aircraft that the CroAF is intending to buy; the previously mentioned Yemeni examples that were sent to the Ukraine to be overhauled and ended up staying there: http://spotters.net.ua/search/?airli...rcraft=Mikoyan-Gurevich+MiG-21bis. Possibly being flight tested prior to sale...

    Some more news... an article published in the local news available in Croatian here) had decided to add some more fuel to the fire with some new and previously unmentioned information.

    According to the article, there seems to be a strong Ukrainian lobby operating within the MoD, which is actively pushing for several CroAF examples to be overhauled in Odessa and later bolstered by eight Yemeni examples pictured in the previous link. However, in addition to the jets' disputed ownership, there are two other major issues:

  • according to NATO policy, existing CroAF examples - updated to partial NATO standards in the early 2000s - cannot exit NATO space for servicing due to the sensitive nature of their on-board identification equipment. This makes them unable to actually get to the Ukraine to be serviced, which sentences them to a final grounding by summer 2013. Aerostar of Romania - which had handled the previous upgrade, and would be able to do this one - has been approached only for form's sake, with little actual interest from the MoD

  • if the Yemeni aircraft are actually bought, they will likely be next to useless; since the Ukraine cannot upgrade them to NATO standards, they could not be used for air policing (or any other NATO mission), and would have to be relegated to lesser tasks, which would - if history is anything to go by - be made up just to justify their existence

    In addition, the article states that when the Croatian delegation had inspected the jets, their Yemeni markings had been removed, ostensibly as proof that they are not actually owned by Yemen. Now however - as is visible in several of the shots posted previously - their original markings have been partially restored.

    Ah, here we go again... hopefully, cooler heads will prevail - if this article is not just politicking with partial facts  .



  • No plane, no gain.
    User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
    Reply 75, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 11425 times:
    AIRLINERS.NET CREW
    PHOTO SCREENER

    So, it's official: the CroAF has decided to upgrade several existing MiG-21s and buy a few more to bring the fleet up to 12 operational examples. The details are scant, but the MoD spokeswoman has said that EUR 11 million has been appropriated for the cause in 2013, with an additional 11 mil to be available in 2014.


    No plane, no gain.
    User currently offlinemig21umd From Australia, joined Feb 2005, 269 posts, RR: 1
    Reply 76, posted (1 year 3 months 2 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 7764 times:

    http://www.croatiantimes.com/news/Ge...ia_to_repair_MIG_planes_in_Ukraine

    Looks like we finally have an answer.

    7 Migs will be sent to Ukraine for overhaul while 5 will be purchased from Ukraine and overhauled and upgraded.

    I wonder if we will see a different colour scheme on the Migs.



    Once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you long to return
    User currently offlineTripleDelta From Croatia, joined Jul 2004, 1123 posts, RR: 6
    Reply 77, posted (1 year 3 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 7286 times:
    AIRLINERS.NET CREW
    PHOTO SCREENER

    Quoting mig21umd (Reply 76):
    7 Migs will be sent to Ukraine for overhaul while 5 will be purchased from Ukraine and overhauled and upgraded.

    An expected outcome, since the Ukrainian bid was EUR 6 million (or thereabouts) lower than the Romanian one.

    However, it remains to be seen whether choosing Odessa was the lesser of the two evils; for while Aerostar had made a complete mess of the previous overhaul (with several jets needing another overhaul to remove the issues from the previous overhaul), Odessa's credentials and paperwork are hardly better.

    The five new jets are an especially thorny issue, since the overhaul center adamantly states that they were imported to the Ukraine by a company from Switzerland and have nothing to do with Yemen whatsoever. However, the paperwork they had supplied says that the jets were imported one year BEFORE the Swiss company ever came into being, and with no explanation of why they are in Yemeni colors. The grapevine had meanwhile offered information that the aircraft in question had never served with the Yemeni AF, but were bought by Yemen from Ethiopia. Yemen was not happy with the quality of the overhaul done in the Ukraine and refused to take the aircraft, leaving them standing around. Other a/c in the batch offered to the CroAF had previously flown in Algeria - so their quality and maintenance histories are suspect.

    Whatever the truth may be, we'll see by the end of the year  .



    No plane, no gain.
    Top Of Page
    Forum Index

    Reply To This Topic CroAF May Buy Used MiG-21s
    Username:
    No username? Sign up now!
    Password: 


    Forgot Password? Be reminded.
    Remember me on this computer (uses cookies)
    • Military aviation related posts only!
    • Not military related? Use the other forums
    • No adverts of any kind. This includes web pages.
    • No hostile language or criticizing of others.
    • Do not post copyright protected material.
    • Use relevant and describing topics.
    • Check if your post already been discussed.
    • Check your spelling!
    • DETAILED RULES
    Add Images Add SmiliesPosting Help

    Please check your spelling (press "Check Spelling" above)


    Similar topics:More similar topics...
    Report: Saudis May Buy 72 (More) F-15s posted Tue Sep 8 2009 15:32:49 by Lumberton
    WSJ: Iraq May Buy 36 F-16 From The US posted Fri Sep 5 2008 06:54:02 by 777
    Nato May Buy $700 Millon Worth Of C-17's posted Fri May 9 2008 12:33:11 by MedAv
    Japan May Buy Eurofighter, Defence Minister Says posted Wed Oct 17 2007 17:07:08 by Acheron
    Can Anyone Buy An Old Used Fighter Jet? posted Sat Nov 6 2010 09:14:00 by varigb707
    Japan May Cancel F-35 Order posted Wed Feb 29 2012 17:40:17 by francoflier
    A4M And Mig-29 Replacement Aircraft. posted Sun Feb 26 2012 18:16:55 by L-188
    Report: Oman To Buy 12 New Tranche 2 Typhoons posted Sun Nov 13 2011 19:08:25 by art
    US Navy To Buy 74 UK Harriers + Engine Spares posted Sun Nov 13 2011 18:37:45 by STT757
    No Guarantee Australia Will Buy F35 posted Mon Jul 25 2011 23:23:41 by Quokka
    ‘Sequestration’ May Re-Open Tanker Pact posted Thu Mar 8 2012 09:50:54 by Revelation
    Japan May Cancel F-35 Order posted Wed Feb 29 2012 17:40:17 by francoflier
    A4M And Mig-29 Replacement Aircraft. posted Sun Feb 26 2012 18:16:55 by L-188

    Sponsor Message:
    Printer friendly format